Brazilian LCI and LCA Yields Set to Fall Below 95% of CDI in 2026

In July 2026 Brazil’s fixed‑income market is expected to see lower returns on bank‑issued Letras de Crédito Imobiliário (LCI) and Letras de Crédito do Agronegócio (LCA). The rates are projected to drop to around 88% of the CDI, a decrease from the near‑full‑CDI levels (95‑100%) investors have become accustomed to. Despite the lower yields, LCI and LCA remain exempt from personal‑income tax, a status that survived a failed 2025 attempt to levy a tax through provisional measure 1.303.

A comparison with Certificado de Depósito Bancário (CDB) shows that the tax exemption can make LCI/LCA more attractive even when their gross rates are lower. A sample two‑year investment of R$10,000 at 90% of CDI for LCI/LCA yields a net return of 18.81%, versus a CDB offering 100% of CDI but subject to a 15% tax, which delivers a net return of 17.85%. The analysis highlights that CDBs may still be preferable for very short horizons where the tax impact is smaller.