Lula leads BTG/Nexus poll but faces technical tie with Flávio Bolsonaro in second‑round simulations
The BTG/Nexus poll released on 27 July 2026 surveyed 2,004 Brazilian voters. In the stimulated first‑round scenario, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds 42 % of voting intention, ahead of senator Flávio Bolsonaro (33 %).
In all second‑round simulations, Lula is in a technical tie with each of the three main right‑wing contenders: 47 % vs 43 % against Flávio Bolsonaro; 45 % vs 43 % against former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado; 46 % vs 42 % against former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema. A fourth simulation against activist Renan Santos shows Lula at 47 % to Santos’s 39 %.
Rejection rates place Flávio Bolsonaro as the most rejected candidate (50 % of respondents would not vote for him), with Lula close behind at 48 %. Government approval for Lula stands at 47 % and disapproval at 49 %. All figures have a margin of error of ±2 percentage points and a confidence level of 95 %.
Entities: BTG/Nexus · Brazil · Datafolha · Flávio Bolsonaro · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · Nexus/BTG · Quaest · Renan Santos · Romeu Zema · Ronaldo Caiado
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.
- [● 7 SOURCES] In the Nexus/BTG poll released on 27 July 2026, Lula has 42 % voting intention in the first‑round scenario. (direct)
- [● 8 SOURCES] The poll interviewed 2,004 respondents between 24 and 26 July, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points and 95 % confidence. (direct)
- [● 3 SOURCES] Flávio Bolsonaro has a 50 % rejection rate, while Lula has a 48 % rejection rate in the same poll. (direct)
- [● 15 SOURCES] In simulated second‑round match‑ups, Lula leads Ronaldo Caiado 45‑43%, Romeu Zema 46‑42% and Renan Santos 47‑39%. (Nexus/BTG poll)
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Lula’s first‑round support increased from 40 % to 42 % compared with the previous round, while Bolsonaro’s fell from 34 % to 33 %. (reported in article ecb5eba4-054e-46df-8739-ef104c8f88cb)
- [● 9 SOURCES] In a second‑round simulation between Lula and Flávio, Lula receives 47 % and Bolsonaro 43 %, a technical tie. (direct)
- [● 8 SOURCES] The poll is registered with the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral under code BR‑01489/2026. (direct)
- [● 2 SOURCES] In the same poll, Flávio Bolsonaro has 33 % voting intention in the first‑round scenario. (reported in articles 8ce861b4-0b68-44f9-b3d3-a54cef56e0b9, 89b21dbe-7186-44fd-a8bf-320f52f11c24, 78894a3a-3fac-4e44-9630)
- [● 7 SOURCES] In a second‑round simulation, Lula receives 46 % against Romeu Zema’s 42 %, a technical tie. (direct)
- [● 6 SOURCES] Flávio Bolsonaro has 33 % voting intention in the first‑round scenario of the Nexus/BTG poll. (direct)
- [● 7 SOURCES] In a second‑round simulation, Lula obtains 45 % against Ronaldo Caiado’s 43 %, a technical tie. (direct)
- [● 4 SOURCES] The BTG/Nexus poll released on 27 July 2026 shows Lula with 42 % voting intention in the first‑round stimulated scenario. (BTG/Nexus poll)