Brazilian retail shows regional contrast in 2026 sales outlook

A survey of Minas Gerais merchants found that 87.5% expect Father’s Day to boost retail sales in 2026, with 43.7% forecasting higher revenues than the previous year and another 34.7% anticipating stable turnover. The average purchase is projected between R$70.01 and R$200, largely paid by credit cards, and most retailers plan to focus on promotions, social‑media outreach and differentiated service. Clothing is the leading product category for the holiday.

In contrast, data from Sergipe’s expanded retail sector showed a 0.1% decline in May 2026 sales compared with April, and a 2.5% drop versus May 2025. Despite the volume dip, nominal revenue rose 1.0% month‑over‑month and 2.6% year‑over‑year. Restricted retail sales fell 1.0% from April, though revenue grew 0.3%.

These regional figures illustrate differing momentum within Brazil’s retail market, with optimism tied to a specific holiday in Minas Gerais contrasted by modest contraction in Sergipe.