Lula leads 2026 Brazilian presidential poll, tied with Flávio Bolsonaro and Caiado in second‑round scenarios

A Real Time Big Data poll released on 21 July 2026 surveyed 2,000 voters nationwide. In the stimulated first‑round scenario, President Luiz Inácio Lula (PT) holds 40 % of voting intention, ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL‑RJ) at 33 %; Renan Santos (Missão) registers 9 %, former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) 7 %, and Romeu Zema (Novo) 2 %. Blank or null votes total 3 %.

In simulated second‑round match‑ups, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are technically tied at 45 % versus 42 % (margin of error ±2 points). Lula also faces a technical tie with Caiado, who scores 44 % to Lula’s 43 %. Against Zema, Lula leads 44 % to 38 %; against Renan Santos, 44 % to 35 %.

Other polling data show 55 % of respondents expect Lula to win the October election (Genial/Quaest), while 25 % back Flávio Bolsonaro. Demographic breakdowns reveal Lula’s strength in the Northeast and among women, with Bolsonaro ahead in the South and among men. Separate surveys note that the Lula administration’s approval stands at 48 % while disapproval reaches 50 %.

President Lula also signed a decree authorising the Armed Forces to support voting logistics and security for the 4 October 2026 election.