Brazil's ANEEL lifts 2026 electricity bill forecast to 8.6% amid higher subsidies

The Brazilian electricity regulator ANEEL raised its projection for the average 2026 electricity bill increase from 8% to 8.6%, surpassing the forecast 4.9% inflation rate. The agency cited rising consumer‑paid subsidies, a less favourable hydro‑rainfall cycle for 2025/2026, and a higher budget for the Conta de Desenvolvimento Energético (CDE), which is set at R$ 47.8 billion – a 17.7% jump from 2025.

To mitigate the impact, ANEEL will direct R$ 3.1 billion from the Uso de Bem Público (UBP) charge to consumers in the North and Northeast regions, Mato Grosso and parts of Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo. The adjustment also reflects potential extra charges under the tariff‑flag mechanism when costlier generation sources are needed.