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Brazil central bank's Selic outlook cut to 13.75% for 2026, inflation forecast lowered
The Central Bank of Brazil’s Focus report released on 3 August 2024 showed the market’s median expectation for the Selic rate at the end of 2026 falling to 13.75%, the first downward revision since March. The current Selic rate stands at 14.25% after the Copom decision on 17 June, and analysts expect at least one more cut before year‑end.
The report also lowered the inflation forecast for 2026 (IPCA) to 5.03% from 5.12%, marking the fifth consecutive week of decline. Projections for real GDP growth in 2026 remain at 1.99% and the dollar is expected to trade around R$ 5.20 per US$. Copom’s next meeting is scheduled for 4–5 August 2024, and a Reuters poll of 38 analysts predicts a 0.25‑point cut to 14.00% at that session.
Entities
Banco Central do Brasil · Bank of England · Brazil · Brazil Central Bank (Copom) · CNI (Confederação Nacional da Indústria) · Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) · Confederação Nacional da Indústria (CNI) · Copom · Federal Reserve · Focus report · Focus report (Boletim Focus) · IPCA (inflation index)
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 5 SOURCES] Brazil's Copom is scheduled to announce its Selic decision on 5 August, with markets expecting a 0.5‑percentage‑point cut to 10.5% annual. www.spacemoney.com.br · bpmoney.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 6‑3 to hold the Bank Rate at 3.75%.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The July 29 Fed vote was 9‑3, the most dissent in a decade.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said he does not provide forward guidance.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.5%‑3.75% at the July 29 meeting.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Kevin Warsh proposed increasing the frequency of Federal Reserve policy meetings.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Bank of England officials said inflation remains above the 2% target.
- [● 5 SOURCES] The United States will release its July non‑farm payroll employment report on 7 August. www.spacemoney.com.br · bpmoney.com.br
- [● 2 SOURCES] A Reuters poll of analysts expects Copom to cut the Selic by 0.25 percentage point to 14.00% on 5 August. jack1065.com · kfgo.com
- [● 13 SOURCES] The Focus report lowered the 2026 inflation projection (IPCA) to 5.03% from 5.12%. ohoje.com · gazetaderondonia.com.br · mrnews.com.br · portaln10.com.br · baraoemfoco.com.br · +4 more
- [● 13 SOURCES] Brazil’s inflation target band is 3 % ± 1.5 % (upper limit 4.5 %). ohoje.com · gazetaderondonia.com.br · mrnews.com.br · portaln10.com.br · baraoemfoco.com.br · +4 more
- [● 25 SOURCES] Copom’s next meeting is scheduled for 4–5 August 2024. ohoje.com · gazetaderondonia.com.br · mrnews.com.br · portaln10.com.br · baraoemfoco.com.br · +16 more