Brazil's energy sector urged to assess extreme risks and pursue a just transition

At the Energy Summit in Rio de Janeiro, public‑policy consultant Maurício Tolmasquim warned that Brazil's fuel sector must expand risk analysis to include extreme geopolitical scenarios, such as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz that could sharply raise oil prices. He advocated for insurance‑type protections, new refining capacity, and diversification into biomass‑based fuels, sustainable aviation fuel, biometano and renewables to safeguard supply security, noting current dependence on Chinese‑made equipment. Tolmasquim also projected Brazil could rank among the world's top five oil producers by 2030.

A parallel discussion highlighted the need for a just energy transition in Brazil, emphasizing that equitable access and affordability must be tailored to regional conditions. While the country enjoys a relatively clean electricity mix, stark disparities persist—from Amazon communities lacking electricity to urban households spending a large share of income on bills. Policy makers are urged to territorialize energy measures, leveraging modular storage technologies such as batteries to improve resilience and support vulnerable populations, in line with Sustainable Development Goal 7.

Together, the experts call for a coordinated strategy that balances geopolitical risk management, domestic production goals, and socially inclusive policies to ensure a secure and fair energy future for Brazil.