Brazil's freight floor bill could add billions in logistics and tax costs

A provisional measure establishing a minimum freight floor for road transport in Brazil proposes semi‑annual updates based on operational costs, including diesel prices. Experts warn that, from 2027, the rule could raise logistics expenses for sectors that rely on road haulage—especially agribusiness—and trigger “billions‑of‑reais” increases in state tax bases such as ICMS. The impact may be amplified by the scheduled end of diesel tax exemptions in December 2026, which could lift diesel prices and further raise the freight floor.

Petrobras’ director of Engineering, Technology and Innovation, Renata Baruzzi, said the war in the Middle East has not altered the company’s 2027‑2031 investment plan. The conflict has mainly increased freight and insurance costs and raised prices for some chemical inputs, but project timelines for major initiatives—including the Margem Equatorial offshore drilling, pre‑sal expansion, refinery upgrades and a renewed fertilizer segment—remain unchanged.