Brazil's economy projected to grow 2‑2.4% in 2026 according to IMF and industry forecast

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its outlook for Brazil, projecting a 2.4% rise in real GDP in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. The fund highlighted the economy’s “notable resilience” amid multiple shocks, a solid banking system and the benefits of higher oil prices and fiscal support. It noted inflation could peak at 5.6% in 2026 before gradually returning to the 3% target by 2028, and urged Brazil to keep fiscal flexibility, strengthen public‑debt sustainability and continue structural reforms such as tax and business‑environment changes.

The Confederation of National Industry (CNI) also kept its 2026 GDP growth estimate at 2%, citing strength in the extractive sector, agribusiness and services. CNI warned that high interest rates, persistent inflation, rising production costs and increased imports could limit a faster recovery. It revised the inflation forecast upward to 5% for the year and highlighted risks from the Middle‑East conflict on input costs.

Both the IMF and CNI view the outlook as moderated but positive, stressing the need for fiscal discipline and reforms to sustain growth.