Brazil's insurance market sees surge in guarantee policies and rising costs amid geopolitical tensions

Guarantee insurance is becoming a strategic financial tool for Brazilian companies. According to Guilherme Silveira, CEO of Genebra Corretora de Seguros, the product preserves liquidity by replacing cash deposits or bank guarantees, allowing firms to keep capital for investment and working‑capital needs. In 2025 the credit and guarantee segment recorded a 19.5% increase, with guarantee‑insurance premiums reaching R$ 6.29 billion – a 23.9% rise from the previous year – driven largely by the new Public Procurement Law (Law 14.133/2021) that mandates such guarantees for public works.

Lockton, the world’s largest independent insurance broker, warns that escalating wars and geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, are making risk pricing volatile and pushing up insurance costs. The firm notes suspensions of war coverage and higher premiums for maritime, transport and logistics lines, as routes are rerouted around the Red Sea, Suez Canal and the Cape of Good Hope, extending transit times by 10‑14 days. These trends suggest that global trade‑related insurance will remain more expensive and less predictable in the coming years.