Lula ties with Flávio Bolsonaro, Caiado, Zema in July 2026 polls FAST-MOVING

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.

• [● 7 SOURCES] In the Nexus/BTG poll released on 27 July 2026, Lula has 42 % voting intention in the first‑round scenario. (direct)
• [● 8 SOURCES] The poll interviewed 2,004 respondents between 24 and 26 July, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points and 95 % confidence. (direct)
• [● 3 SOURCES] Flávio Bolsonaro has a 50 % rejection rate, while Lula has a 48 % rejection rate in the same poll. (direct)
• [● 15 SOURCES] In simulated second‑round match‑ups, Lula leads Ronaldo Caiado 45‑43%, Romeu Zema 46‑42% and Renan Santos 47‑39%. (Nexus/BTG poll)
• [○ 1 SOURCE] Lula’s first‑round support increased from 40 % to 42 % compared with the previous round, while Bolsonaro’s fell from 34 % to 33 %. (reported in article ecb5eba4-054e-46df-8739-ef104c8f88cb)
• [● 9 SOURCES] In a second‑round simulation between Lula and Flávio, Lula receives 47 % and Bolsonaro 43 %, a technical tie. (direct)
• [● 8 SOURCES] The poll is registered with the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral under code BR‑01489/2026. (direct)
• [● 2 SOURCES] In the same poll, Flávio Bolsonaro has 33 % voting intention in the first‑round scenario. (reported in articles 8ce861b4-0b68-44f9-b3d3-a54cef56e0b9, 89b21dbe-7186-44fd-a8bf-320f52f11c24, 78894a3a-3fac-4e44-9630)
• [● 7 SOURCES] In a second‑round simulation, Lula receives 46 % against Romeu Zema’s 42 %, a technical tie. (direct)
• [● 6 SOURCES] Flávio Bolsonaro has 33 % voting intention in the first‑round scenario of the Nexus/BTG poll. (direct)
• [● 7 SOURCES] In a second‑round simulation, Lula obtains 45 % against Ronaldo Caiado’s 43 %, a technical tie. (direct)
• [● 9 SOURCES] Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has 42 % voting intention in the first‑round scenario of the Nexus/BTG poll. (Nexus/BTG poll (27 July 2026))