Lula Leads 2026 Brazilian Presidential Race as Flavio Bolsonaro Support Drops, Anti‑Bolsonaro Sentiment Peaks

Recent Genial/Quaest and PoderData polls show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva consolidating a clear lead in the 2026 presidential election. Lula holds about 40% of voter intent for the first round and 45% for a possible second round, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s support has fallen to roughly 28% (first round) and 37% (second round). Lula’s approval also surpassed disapproval for the first time since December 2024, registering 48% approval against 47% disapproval.

Flávio Bolsonaro’s backing has eroded further, with indecision among voters rising from 5% to 11% and his share of intent dropping from 33% to 28% in recent weeks. The same surveys indicate a growing anti‑Bolsonaro sentiment, reaching 44% of respondents, overtaking antipetismo which stands at 36%. Lula’s popularity gains are especially pronounced in regions traditionally aligned with Bolsonaro, such as the South and Center‑West, and among higher‑income voters.

These trends suggest a shifting electorate that continues to favor the incumbent government while expressing strong resistance to the Bolsonaro faction, shaping the dynamics of the upcoming campaign.