Brazil's Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro in latest polls as party conventions near

Party conventions in the state of Tocantins are scheduled between August 2 and August 5, with a legal deadline of August 5 for parties to formalize their pre‑candidates and alliances. After the conventions, candidate registrations must be submitted to the Electoral Justice by August 15, and the official campaign period begins on August 16. The first round of the presidential election is set for October 4, with a possible second round on October 25. So far, only the PSOL‑Rede federation has announced a candidacy.

Recent national opinion polls from BTG/Nexus, AtlasIntel, Vox and Alfa show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintaining a lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. First‑round intentions range from 42% to 49% for Lula versus 31% to 36% for Bolsonaro. Simulated second‑round results keep Lula ahead, with figures between 47% and 49% compared to Bolsonaro’s 41% to 43%, indicating a consistent but not overwhelming advantage.