Brazil's rising picanha prices set to shape 2026 election debate

The price of picanha, Brazil's premium beef cut, reached R$ 85.10 per kilogram in June 2024, a 21 % increase over the same month a year earlier when adjusted for inflation. The rise, highlighted by a Safras & Mercado survey for CNN Brazil, reflects a new livestock‑production cycle rather than any price‑control policy. After an earlier decline in beef prices that had become a campaign symbol during the 2022 election, the market now faces tighter supply as cattle‑rearing investments wane and producers reduce herd replacements.

Domestic beef consumption rose 7.8 % between 2022‑2023 and added another 2 % in 2024, reaching 38 kg per person – the highest since 2014, according to Conab. However, the recent price surge is expected to push consumption down, with a projected 9 % drop in 2025. Analysts say the higher cost of meat could become a focal point in the upcoming 2026 presidential race, shifting the narrative from earlier discussions of affordability to concerns over agricultural policy and household budgets under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s government.