Brazil's 2025/26 crop cycle shows slower tobacco sales and expanding soy ties with China

In the 2025/26 season, Brazil's tobacco harvest in the South reached 86.1% of total production sold, down from 97.5% a year earlier. The slowdown is driven by the Virginia variety, especially in Rio Grande do Sul where only 72.9% has been marketed, while Burley and Common types are almost fully sold.

A Serasa Experian survey found the area available for sugarcane harvest in Brazil's Centro‑Sul region grew 3.1% to 9.17 million hectares for the 2026/27 crop. Nova Alvorada do Sul (MS) now leads the national ranking of municipalities, and Mato Grosso do Sul increased its share of the regional planted area.

Brazil is on track for a record soy harvest of 182.4 million tonnes in 2025/26. Analysts warn that a strong El Niño starting late 2026 could cut production in Mato Grosso, the state that supplies about a third of national output, potentially tightening global prices.

Export data show Brazil shipped 58.5 million tonnes of soy from January to May 2026, with 70% (around 41 million tonnes) destined for China. Experts describe the trade as a mutual dependence: China relies heavily on Brazilian soy, while Brazil benefits from the large, stable market.