Brazil's June 2026 macro data shows falling IGP‑M, steady inflation outlook and mixed market sentiment

The General Market Price Index (IGP‑M) fell 0.50% in June, its first monthly deflation since February, driven by a 0.97% drop in the Producer Price Index (IPA‑M). Prices of gasoline, ethanol and coffee also declined, contributing to the slowdown.

Market forecasts keep the IPCA inflation rate at 5.33% for 2026, above the central bank’s 3 % target, with the Selic rate projected at 14% for the same year. Analysts expect further cuts from the current 14.25% level.

The FGV Economic Uncertainty Index rose to 111.3 points in June, reflecting heightened doubts about monetary policy and external risks. Meanwhile, the services‑sector confidence index increased to 90.8 points, and the retail confidence index (Icec) edged up to 102.6 points, driven by optimism in clothing and footwear.

Brazil’s main stock index, the Ibovespa, slipped about 0.7% amid higher futures‑rate yields and pending labour data. The dollar traded around R$5.19 as investors awaited the month‑end PTAX rate and US employment figures.

The B3 exchange launched event‑linked contracts on the IPCA inflation index and on GDP, allowing investors to trade expectations on price stability and economic growth directly.