Brazil's Superior Electoral Court tightens poll rules and faces legal challenges ahead of 2026 election

The Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) convened with research institutes to establish new criteria for opinion polls, following the suspension of an AtlasIntel survey that featured a controversial audio clip about senator Flávio Bolsonaro. The court aims to clarify question wording, the use of audio/video, and transparency of methodology, requiring pre‑registration of surveys and imposing fines for non‑compliance. These measures are part of an intensified oversight of poll dissemination for the 2026 elections.

Separately, the Empresa Brasil de Comunicação (EBC) filed a preventive action with the TSE seeking a judicial guarantee that its news reports will be treated as journalistic content, not prohibited election‑law advertising, after more than 100,000 political publications were taken offline under the “defeso eleitoral” rule.

In the political arena, a BTG/Nexus poll released on 13 July shows incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 47 % support versus 44 % for senator Flávio Bolsonaro, a narrow lead within the margin of error. The poll also notes that 70 % of respondents say their vote is already decided.

Political parties, including PT and PL, have asked the TSE president Kassio Nunes Marques to exclude presidential, senatorial and state‑governor races from the calculation of minimum funding quotas for women and Black candidates, a move that would reduce the amount parties must allocate to these groups.