Brazil's winter begins with strong El Niño-driven rain and heat

Winter in the Southern Hemisphere officially started at 05:24 BRT on Sunday, 21 June 2026, marking the onset of the season across Brazil. The NOAA‑confirmed El Niño is forecast to raise surface temperatures in many regions and increase precipitation above normal, especially in the South, the northwest of the North region and parts of the Southeast.

Meteorologists from the São Paulo Climate Emergency Management Center (CGE) and the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) note that while rain totals may rise, the El Niño also brings dry air masses that can prolong periods without rain, heightening the risk of forest fires and worsening respiratory‑related health problems. The CGE expects an average of 130.5 mm of rain in São Paulo, but also warns of large temperature swings and potential fire‑danger conditions.

Experts stress that the combination of El Niño with ongoing global warming makes precise seasonal forecasts more uncertain, and they urge continuous monitoring of official bulletins.