Brazil‑US trade share hits historic low as US tariffs push exports toward China

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the final decision on possible tariffs against Brazil will be released by July 15, after a week‑long hearing on Brazilian trade practices.

A year after President Donald Trump imposed a 50 % tariff on most Brazilian goods in July 2025, the United States’ share of Brazil’s export market fell to 9.4 % in the first half of 2026 – the lowest level since the series began in 1997. China’s share rose to 31.5 %, making it Brazil’s leading trading partner. Bilateral trade between the two countries contracted 12.8 % to US$36.4 billion, with Brazilian exports to the U.S. down 13 % to US$17.4 billion and imports falling 12.5 % to US$19 billion.

According to the Amcham Brazil report, 25 % of Brazilian products shipped to the U.S. face additional duties of 12.5 %‑25 %, while another 20 % are subject to Section 232 restrictions on steel, aluminium and related goods. Agro‑industrial items such as coffee, orange juice, and certain meats were largely exempt, but sectors like footwear, tilapia and specialty woods saw sharp declines. The tariff pressure has spurred Brazilian exporters to diversify, with 72 % of assisted firms opening at least one new market and sales to China increasing 21.9 %.

Brazil’s trade body warns that any new U.S. tariffs under the ongoing Section 301 investigation could further erode the already‑thin U.S. market share, reinforcing the shift toward alternative partners such as China, the EU and regional markets.