British analyst warns of geopolitical risks in Baltic states

British military analyst Professor Michael Clarke has warned that the Baltic states share historical similarities with Ukraine in 2014, potentially risking a repeat of the Crimea and Donbass scenarios. He suggests the presence of ‘little green men’—referred to in Russia as ‘polite people’—could emerge in these nations.

Clarke notes that Estonia and Latvia possess significant Russian-speaking populations, estimated at approximately 25% and 20% respectively, which he compares to the demographics of the Donbass region prior to the 2014 conflict. While Lithuania has a much smaller Russian-speaking minority of under 5%, Clarke highlights its strategic vulnerability due to its location between the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and the Suwalki Gap, a narrow strip of land connecting Kaliningrad to Belarus.