André Esteves discusses Brazil's fiscal and political outlook

André Esteves, chairman of BTG Pactual, has shared several perspectives regarding Brazil's economic and political future. Regarding the 2026 presidential election, Esteves projects an extremely tight race, potentially resulting in a 51% to 49% split, likely requiring a second round.

On fiscal policy, Esteves advocates for a proactive fiscal adjustment to reduce interest rates, suggesting that a disciplined approach could bring the Selic rate down to approximately 7% per year. He criticized the current expansionary fiscal policy and called for a review of the “absurd” volume of tax-exempt securities in Brazil to increase federal revenue. He also emphasized that while the economic path is clear, the institutional environment remains a critical battleground for the country.

In terms of investment, Esteves recommends maintaining capital within Brazil, noting that the country offers significant opportunities across various sectors with world-class execution capabilities. He advised investors to avoid unfamiliar areas and focus on established companies.

Separately, financial expert Tiago Costa of Plenum Capital warned businesses that increased sales volume does not inherently guarantee profit or cash flow, citing high costs, expensive credit, and extended payment terms as primary risks to financial sustainability.