Bulgaria faces 1 billion euro annual climate loss and rising deaths

A new expert report, “Research on Vulnerabilities to the Consequences of Climate Change in Bulgaria: A Joint National Assessment,” warns that climate change is causing thousands of deaths and significant economic damage in Bulgaria. Direct economic losses from droughts and heatwaves are estimated to exceed 1 billion euros for 2025, representing approximately 1 percent of the country's GDP.

Coordinated by the Net-Zero Lab at Sofia University St. Kliment Ohridski, the study indicates that heatwaves, droughts, and flash floods are no longer isolated anomalies but part of a systemic transformation of the nation's climate. Bulgaria ranks 50th out of 64 countries in climate action efficiency according to the 2025 CCPI index, showing weakness in greenhouse gas emissions, climate policy, and energy consumption.

The country is warming faster than the global average. Bulgaria has recorded an average annual temperature increase of approximately 0.8 degrees Celsius compared to the 1961–1990 period. Scientists predict that the number of hot days and nights could rise from the current 10–20 to 50–60 by the end of the century. Under high-emission scenarios, average annual temperatures could reach 14.1 degrees Celsius, effectively shifting the country's climate hundreds of kilometers to the south.