Bulgaria may sharply raise social security thresholds amid budget deficit

Economist and university lecturer Shteryo Nozharyov warned that Bulgaria could significantly increase both the maximum and minimum social‑security income thresholds in the coming years to address large deficits in the pension and insurance system. While contribution rates would stay unchanged, the higher income bases would raise the actual tax‑and‑social‑security burden for employers and employees.

Nozharyov expects the European Commission’s assessment of Bulgaria’s 2027 budget, due on 15 October, to push the government toward stronger deficit‑reduction measures, including higher revenues and spending cuts. He also anticipates the introduction of additional fees, such as environmental and product taxes, which he describes as “hidden indirect taxes on business and consumption.” The budget proposals are slated for submission to the Ministry of Finance on 14 September, with the broader aim of meeting EU recovery‑fund conditions and tackling the shadow economy.