Bursa earthquake risk analysis pinpoints 10 highest‑risk neighbourhoods

The Bursa Metropolitan Municipality, in partnership with Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), updated the city’s seismic risk map using new geological and geophysical data. The study evaluated 536,000 buildings, incorporating construction year, floor count and soil conditions, and ran twelve earthquake scenarios, including the Cross‑Basin fault. It produced neighbourhood‑level risk scores, showing Çırpan in Osmangazi district as the most vulnerable with an 87.7 % risk rating, followed by Altıparmak (87.3 %), Kükürtlü (85.2 %) and Selimiye (82.2 %). The analysis also modelled potential building collapses in pilot areas, estimating that 31 of 323 buildings could be destroyed in the Bursa‑İnegöl fault scenario and 90 of 255 buildings in the Altıparmak area. The findings support Bursa’s Urban Resilience Plan, which outlines five policy pillars such as resilient transport networks, risk‑based land‑use planning and prioritised urban renewal for high‑risk zones. The municipality presented the results to the city council in July, aiming to guide future zoning, retrofitting and disaster‑preparedness measures.