Caixa Seguridade: XP raises target price despite strike impact

XP Investimentos has updated its projections for Caixa Seguridade (CXSE3) for the third quarter of 2026, noting that a strike by Caixa Econômica Federal employees in September is expected to impact new bancassurance sales.

Despite the strike, analysts maintain a positive outlook due to a growing base of recurring premiums and favorable loss ratios. XP raised its target price for the stock at the end of 2027 from R$ 20 to R$ 25. The expected net profit for the quarter is R$ 1.161 billion, a 2% increase from the previous quarter.

Key performance indicators include: - Housing insurance remains the primary growth driver, with issued premiums expected to grow approximately 14% annually to R$ 1.16 billion. - Credit life insurance premiums are projected at R$ 230 million, a 40% annual decrease due to the strike and challenging credit conditions. - Pension contributions are expected to reach R$ 6.5 billion, an 8% annual decline. - Consortium sales are estimated at R$ 5.0 billion, down from R$ 6.8 billion in the second quarter. - The loss ratio is estimated to improve to approximately 23%.