Campi Flegrei study links CO2 emissions to volcanic unrest

A multidisciplinary study published in Science Advances has identified the mechanism driving the ongoing volcanic unrest in the Campi Flegrei caldera. Researchers from the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), the University of Perugia, and the University of Campania Luigi Vanvitelli found that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the Solfatara di Pozzuoli area have increased almost exponentially since 2005.

This rise in CO2 emissions closely mirrors a trend of ground uplift, which reached approximately 1.6 meters in Pozzuoli by December 2025, and correlates with intensifying seismic activity. The study suggests the “engine” of the current unrest is the continuous ascent of magmatic fluids accumulating at depths of 3 to 4 kilometers. These fluids pressurize and heat the overlying hydrothermal system.

The findings are based on a unique dataset comprising over 30,000 CO2 flux measurements collected monthly over a 27-year period from 1998 to 2025. Researchers noted that as CO2 is emitted at the surface, significant amounts of water vapor condense underground, transferring substantial latent heat to the surrounding rocks.