Canada faces separatist rise and U.S. security risks

Canada faces dual internal and external pressures as Prime Minister Mark Carney attempts to maintain national unity amid a trade war with the United States and rising separatist movements. The Parti Québécois (PQ) recently won the Quebec provincial election, with incoming Premier Paul St-Pierre Plamondon pledging to hold a referendum on Quebec independence. However, Plamondon stated that no such referendum would occur “as long as Trump is President of the United States,” citing the instability caused by the trade standoff. Experts note that the PQ fell five seats short of the 64 required for a majority, which may complicate the legal process for adopting a referendum question in the National Assembly.

Simultaneously, the Canadian government is addressing security concerns regarding its sovereignty. Prime Minister Carney has acknowledged the “extreme tail risk” of a potential military conflict with the U.S., prompting the Department of National Defence to restructure for homeland defence. Plans include the creation of a new “2nd Division” and significant increases to reserve forces, with goals to reach 100,000 reserve forces and an additional 300,000-person Supplementary Reserve.