Canada housing market shifts as regional price forecasts diverge

The Canadian real estate market is undergoing a period of transition and regional divergence. In the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), the market has shifted from a competitive bidding environment to a negotiation-based model. Recent data shows that approximately 78.1% of homes in the Toronto area sold below their listing price, with high-end properties (over $2 million) seeing median discounts of 5.55%.

Royal LePage has raised its forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026, predicting a 2% year-over-year increase in national home prices to an average of $823,344. This growth is expected to be led by Quebec City, with an 8% increase, followed by Montreal and Winnipeg at 5%. Conversely, the country's most expensive markets, Greater Vancouver and the GTA, are projected to see price declines of 3.5% and 2%, respectively.

While national transaction volumes have shown slight month-over-month increases, experts suggest a slow recovery rather than a rapid surge. Factors such as interest rates, economic uncertainty, and trade-related anxieties continue to influence buyer confidence and purchasing power.