Canada may miss 2030 emissions targets until 2050, study finds

A new study by the Canadian Climate Institute suggests Canada is on track to miss its 2030 emissions targets under the Paris Agreement, potentially failing to reach those levels until 2050.

The analysis indicates that recent federal climate policy rollbacks have placed the country more than 20 years behind schedule for emission reductions. While the previous Trudeau administration set targets to reduce emissions by 40 to 45 per cent and reach net-zero by mid-century, Prime Minister Mark Carney has characterized previous policies as “too expensive and divisive.”

Carney, who eliminated the consumer carbon price upon taking office in March 2025, has faced accusations of backsliding on climate commitments. Although the government maintains its commitment to climate targets, Carney acknowledged that emissions are projected to be higher in the coming years than previously estimated.