Caribbean faces intense heatwaves, uneven rainfall and muted hurricane season

Climatologists Dr Cedric Van Meerbeek of the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology and Dr Theodore Allen of the University of the West Indies Centre for Resource Management and Environmental Studies warned that the Caribbean wet season (July‑September) will see a strengthening El Niño combined with global warming produce a run of intense heat, patchy hurricane activity and uneven rainfall.

The forecast calls for severe short‑term drought in parts of Barbados, Tobago and southwest Barbados, and long‑term drought across Cuba, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, Saint Lucia, St Vincent, Suriname and other islands. Expected heavy rains could trigger high‑to‑extremely‑high flood risk, flash floods and related hazards, while dust‑laden Saharan air may suppress tropical cyclones but worsen heat and air quality.