Caribbean faces potential drought intensification due to El Niño

The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) has warned that a strong El Niño event could expand or intensify drought conditions across the Caribbean as the region transitions out of the Atlantic hurricane season.

In its latest outlook covering November through January, CariCOF noted that while episodes of excessive heat may decrease, unseasonably high temperatures for the cool season are likely. The region may also experience unusually low rainfall frequency, except in the far northwest. Despite the drought risk, a high potential for flooding and flash floods remains across much of the region, with the possible exception of French Guiana and the ABC Islands (Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao).

Additional environmental concerns include potential coral reef bleaching around the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles through December. Furthermore, Saharan air intrusions may temporarily worsen heat and air quality while inhibiting intense shower activity. As of October 1, short-term drought has developed across much of the Antilles, while long-term drought is considered imminent in St. Lucia and evolving in parts of the ABC Islands, Antigua, and the northern Bahamas.