Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett leads race to succeed UN chief

The race to succeed United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres is intensifying, with two women emerging as the leading contenders following two Security Council straw polls. Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett has become the narrow frontrunner, securing eight ‘encourage’ votes against three ‘discourage’ votes in the most recent round. This marks a shift from earlier polling where Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan held the lead.

Several prominent candidates are vying for the position, including former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, Argentine diplomat Rafael Grossi, and former Ecuadorian Foreign Minister María Fernanda Espinosa. The selection process is heavily influenced by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, whose veto power is decisive.

Geopolitical tensions are impacting individual candidacies. For instance, Rafael Grossi’s standing is influenced by his experience with Iran’s nuclear program and Russia’s criticisms regarding the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Similarly, Michelle Bachelet’s previous role as UN human rights chief may affect her ability to secure support from China. The race is progressing faster than previous transitions, with the possibility of a conclusion in as few as four rounds.