Catalan political landscape faces fragmentation ahead of 2027 elections

The political landscape in Catalonia is facing significant fragmentation ahead of the 2027 electoral cycle, which will include both municipal and potentially general elections. Current trends suggest a divergence among pro-independence forces: Junts is facing identity challenges and competition from Aliança Catalana, ERC is positioning itself as an institutional party focused on pacts, and CUP is becoming more integrated into broader municipal candidacies.

Internal leadership within Junts has signaled a firm stance against post-electoral agreements with Aliança Catalana. Secretary General Jordi Turull has indicated that the party aims to keep the rival group as far from power as possible. This competition is expected to be a primary focus in upcoming local contests, particularly regarding whether Aliança Catalana can secure majorities in areas like Ripoll or challenge Junts for influence in Barcelona.

Data from previous elections shows varying levels of territorial strength. While Junts has seen growth in certain vote counts, ERC has maintained a more extensive territorial presence. Projections suggest that the rise of Aliança Catalana could impact the seat counts for traditional parties in the Parliament, potentially shifting the balance of power within the independence movement.