CATL mine shutdown threatens global lithium supply

Uncertainty regarding the restart of CATL’s Jianxiawo lithium mine in China’s Jiangxi province is threatening to tighten global lithium supply through 2027. The mine has been suspended since August 2025 following the expiration of its mining license. While CATL secured a safety production permit in late June, operations have not yet resumed.

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence estimates that a prolonged shutdown could jeopardize approximately 60,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) supply. The Jianxiawo operation accounts for roughly 4% of the global lithium supply. Analysts warn that delays in restarting the mine could significantly reduce expected output for 2026.

Global supply concerns are further compounded by upcoming regulatory changes in Zimbabwe, which produces nearly 10% of the world's mined lithium. Zimbabwe is preparing to ban lithium concentrate exports starting January 1, which could trap a notable portion of the global concentrate supply.