Global livestock markets face supply constraints and price volatility

Global red meat markets are experiencing significant shifts driven by supply shortages and varying regional conditions. In the United States, beef production remains constrained by limited cattle availability, though the dairy herd has grown by 200,000 head over the last year due to strong beef-on-dairy returns. While US cattle numbers are expected to begin a slow climb, significant production increases are not anticipated until 2028.

In Australia, the cattle industry has achieved unprecedented beef export volumes. However, regional markets show divergence; while southern areas see restockers active due to rainfall, northern regions face drying conditions. The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator recently eased slightly to 918¢/kg cwt.

Other sectors face distinct challenges. The pork industry deals with ample supply and a need for stronger domestic demand to prevent surpluses. Meanwhile, the chicken sector is expanding production into a more price-sensitive market. Additionally, rising input costs, such as hay and grain, are impacting cow-calf lease agreements in the US, necessitating reviews of cash and share-based contracts to ensure fairness between owners and operators.