Central American remittances projected to face severe deceleration by 2027

Remittance growth in Central America is projected to slow significantly by 2027, according to the Inter-American Dialogue. Projections suggest growth rates between 0% and 3% for El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua, marking a sharp decline compared to recent years.

Honduras is expected to see the highest growth at 3%, followed by Guatemala at 2.5% and Nicaragua at 2%. El Salvador is projected to experience 0% growth. These funds are critical to regional stability; remittances account for 34% of Honduras's GDP, 33% in Nicaragua, 28% in El Salvador, and 22% in Guatemala.

On a broader scale, remittances to Latin America and the Caribbean have increased by 132% over the last decade, rising from $72.6 billion in 2016 to $168.6 billion in 2025. This growth has outpaced the increase in the number of migrants, indicating larger individual transfer amounts. The Inter-American Dialogue attributes the upcoming Central American slowdown to factors such as a reduction in the number of migrants sending money, increased deportations from the United States, and lower growth in transfer amounts.