Central Asian trade grows despite external dependence and border hurdles

Central Asian nations are experiencing a significant increase in intra-regional trade, which grew 82% between 2020 and 2025, rising from $6.6 billion to $11.9 billion. Despite this growth, regional commerce still accounts for only about 5% of the area's total global trade, leaving economies heavily dependent on external powers such as China, Russia, the European Union, and Turkey.

Kazakhstan has emerged as the region's primary supplier, accounting for 55.6% of intra-regional exports in 2025. The trade relationship between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan is the most significant in the region, totaling $4.9 billion, though it remains weighted toward Kazakhstan. While Uzbekistan's regional exports grew by 44%, its share of intra-regional exports decreased as neighboring economies expanded more rapidly.

Efforts to improve regional connectivity are being met with both cooperation and administrative hurdles. While border services from Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan recently met to enhance information-sharing, ‘invisible borders’—comprising differing regulatory systems, customs practices, and infrastructure standards—continue to hinder seamless integration. Large-scale development remains influenced by China's One Belt One Road initiative.