Central banks pivot from dollar, ramp up gold purchases

A survey by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) of 90 central banks, public pension funds and sovereign wealth funds that manage more than $10 trillion in assets shows a historic shift in reserve strategy. For the first time, more respondents plan to reduce dollar holdings over the next decade than to increase them, citing political uncertainty in the United States and heightened geopolitical risk.

Around 30 % of the participants intend to raise gold allocations within one to two years, and 61 % forecast gold prices between $5,000 and $6,000 an ounce by June 2027. The dollar’s share of allocated foreign‑exchange reserves fell to 56.3 % from 57.8 % in the previous quarter, while the euro’s share rose modestly.

Official gold buying remained strong in May, with a net addition of 41 tonnes. Poland led the buying spree with 18 tonnes, followed by China (10 t), Uzbekistan (9 t), Kazakhstan (7 t) and Singapore (4 t). Turkey and Russia were net sellers. A record 89 % of central bankers expect global gold reserves to increase in the coming 12 months, and 45 % expect their own institutions to add gold.

More than two‑thirds of the respondents also intend to expand the use of artificial intelligence in short‑term reserve‑management processes, underscoring a broader move toward a more multipolar, technologically‑driven reserve framework.