Central Sahel faces escalating violence and institutional collapse

The Central Sahel region, specifically the triple border area of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, is experiencing severe institutional collapse and escalating violence. A recent attempted coup in Niger by dissident military forces highlights the ongoing instability in the region.

Following the expulsion of French troops, the closure of U.S. drone bases, and the dismantling of the UN peacekeeping mission (MINUSMA), military juntas have struggled to contain the violence they promised to suppress. According to the Global Terrorism Index 2026, the region now accounts for more than 50% of global deaths caused by terrorism, positioning it as the primary epicenter of global jihadism.

The humanitarian and social impact is significant; in Mali alone, nearly 2,500 schools have been closed due to the advancement of extremist factions, with instability spreading from northern territories toward regions near the capital.