Chile Central Bank Holds Rate at 4.5% Amid Middle East Tensions

Chile central bank interest rate inflation US‑Iran conflict

On Tuesday, the Council of the Banco Central de Chile unanimously decided to keep the benchmark policy rate (TPM) at 4.5%, matching market expectations. The bank highlighted that headline consumer‑price inflation was 4.3% year‑over‑year in June, above its 3% target, while core inflation stood at 3.4%.

Domestic activity showed signs of weakening: the Imacec index fell 0.9% year‑over‑year in May and the non‑mining component grew only 0.7%, both missing forecast levels. High‑frequency data indicated that investment slowed more sharply in the second quarter than anticipated. The labor market remained soft, with unemployment rising and hourly labor‑cost growth accelerating.

External risks were flagged as a source of greater‑than‑usual uncertainty. The bank cited ongoing volatility linked to the United States‑Iran conflict, noting that oil prices have hovered around $100 per barrel after a brief cease‑fire and a subsequent escalation. Global monetary tightening and elevated expectations for inflation were also mentioned. Copper prices stayed high at roughly $6.3 per pound, supporting Chile’s export sector.

The central bank said future policy decisions will be evaluated meeting‑by‑meeting, with the next rate decision slated for 8 September 2026.

Entities: Banco Central de Chile · Central Bank of Chile · Chile · Imacec · Iran · Iran · United States · United States

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.

[● 6 SOURCES] The Imacec index fell 0.9% year‑over‑year in May. (Economic activity data)
[● 2 SOURCES] Core inflation in June was 3.4% year‑over‑year. (Central Bank data)
[● 6 SOURCES] Oil prices rose back to about $100 per barrel after renewed US‑Iran attacks. (External risk assessment)
[● 2 SOURCES] The decision matched market expectations. (Central Bank statement)
[● 5 SOURCES] Chile's headline consumer‑price inflation was 4.3% year‑over‑year in June. (Inflation data)
[● 5 SOURCES] Copper prices were around $6.3 per pound. (Commodity price note)
[● 4 SOURCES] The non‑mining component of Imacec grew 0.7% year‑over‑year in May. (Economic data)
[● 6 SOURCES] The Central Bank of Chile kept its benchmark policy rate at 4.5% unanimously. (Central Bank decision)
[● 6 SOURCES] Oil prices returned to about $100 per barrel after a cease‑fire and renewed attacks in the US‑Iran conflict.
[● 6 SOURCES] Core inflation in Chile was 3.4% year‑over‑year in June 2026.
[● 6 SOURCES] The Imacec index fell 0.9% year‑over‑year in May 2026.
[● 6 SOURCES] June 2026 headline consumer price inflation in Chile was 4.3% year‑over‑year.