China and Russia hold advantage in advanced nuclear fuel production

A report from the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) indicates that China and Russia are currently the only two nations capable of producing high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) at scale. This specialized fuel is essential for the majority of advanced nuclear reactors currently under development.

The United States currently lacks commercial-scale HALEU enrichment capacity. While the U.S. Department of Energy expects to have approximately 21.2 metric tonnes available by the end of 2028 and 23.4 metric tonnes by the end of 2030, officials warned that demand from reactor developers is likely to exceed this supply before commercial production is established.

This shortage represents a strategic vulnerability for Washington as it attempts to expand nuclear generation and reduce reliance on Russian fuel. Major developers, including TerraPower, X-energy, and Kairos Power, have already requested HALEU for demonstration projects. While China possesses the necessary infrastructure, strategic tensions and national security restrictions make Chinese material an unlikely solution for the U.S. market.