China commits to US coal imports amid fluctuating market supply

China has committed to importing at least 10 million tonnes of US coal annually in 2027 and 2028. This follows a White House announcement and the inclusion of coal in China’s reciprocal tariff-reduction framework. While US Gulf coal shipments to China showed a recovery in the first nine months of 2026 compared to the previous year, total tonnage remains below 2024 levels.

Separately, China’s coal imports fell by 6% year-on-year in September. Despite a slight month-on-month increase, imports were impacted by robust domestic inventories and restricted supply from Indonesia due to production quotas and El Niño-related logistical disruptions. These factors, alongside lower domestic production in China, have contributed to thermal coal prices reaching their highest levels in nearly three years.