China curtails silver exports while US labels metal a critical mineral

China's Ministry of Commerce has introduced a strict licensing system for refined silver exports, limiting shipments to a small number of state‑approved, high‑volume firms. The move is aimed at retaining silver for domestic use in green‑energy, artificial‑intelligence and advanced‑technology sectors, and comes alongside tighter controls on sulfuric‑acid exports used in copper mining.

In response, the United States has added silver to its official list of critical minerals for the first time, citing national‑security and defense‑industry concerns and highlighting the strategic risk of import dependence.

The global silver market continues to face a structural supply deficit, with annual shortfalls estimated at 46‑67 million ounces. Because roughly 70 % of world silver is a by‑product of copper, lead and zinc mining, rapid output increases are unlikely. Major banks have raised their price outlooks for 2026: JP Morgan forecasts an average of $81 per ounce, Bank of America sees short‑term levels reaching $100, and HSBC now expects $75 per ounce.

Analysts view these policy shifts as reinforcing silver's transition from merely a precious metal to a strategic raw material essential for energy transition, AI hardware, radar, missile guidance and other critical defence applications.