China strategy on Dalai Lama succession risks fueling Tibetan resistance

Beijing is reportedly employing a ‘waiting game’ strategy regarding the succession of the 14th Dalai Lama. According to Khedroob Thondup, nephew of the Dalai Lama, the Chinese leadership anticipates that his passing will provide an opportunity to control the succession process and neutralize the Tibetan issue.

This strategy is based on the assumption that the Tibetan exile community will fragment without his unifying leadership, that a state-appointed successor will delegitimize the exile-recognized one, and that international attention will fade. However, critics argue that this approach overlooks the spiritual authority of Tibetan Buddhism and warns that attempting to dictate succession by decree could instead intensify resistance and galvanize international support for the Tibetan cause.

Beijing’s refusal to negotiate is reportedly driven by fears that dialogue would confer political legitimacy on the Dalai Lama, contradicting China’s stance that he is a separatist. Additionally, authorities fear that granting concessions to Tibet could encourage other minority regions to seek greater autonomy, challenging China’s centralized governance.