China targets modern coal industry by 2030 for energy security

China aims to establish a modern coal industry system by 2030 to balance energy security with its green energy transition. According to a development plan released by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration, the country will optimize its coal industry structure during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030).

The plan targets a significant shift toward high-tech operations, projecting that large modern coal mines will account for 87 percent of total production capacity by 2030, with intelligent, AI-driven mines making up 75 percent. Five major coal supply bases are expected to provide over 80 percent of national output.

As China works toward peaking coal consumption by 2030 and increasing non-fossil energy consumption to 25 percent, the industry is expected to become more concentrated. Smaller, inefficient, or accident-prone mines are expected to exit the market more rapidly during this period.