China unlikely to invade Taiwan before 2028, U.S. officials suggest

U.S. intelligence officials and analysts suggest that China is unlikely to launch a military invasion of Taiwan before 2028. This shift in assessment deviates from previous expectations that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) would be prepared for such an operation by 2027, the centenary of the force.

Two primary factors are driving this reassessment. First, President Xi Jinping’s intensive anti-corruption campaign within the military has caused significant disruptions to the PLA's operational capabilities. High-level purges have reached the top of the command structure, notably affecting the Central Military Commission and removing key leaders responsible for combat planning and coordination.

Second, Beijing is reportedly monitoring the political landscape in Taiwan. There is an expectation within certain sectors of the Chinese government that the 2028 presidential elections in Taiwan could result in a leadership more amenable to unification or diplomatic concessions. While the 2027 milestone remains a target for technical military readiness, analysts distinguish this capability goal from an immediate executive decision to initiate conflict.