China's $168 B Yarlung Tsangpo Dam Project Raises Seismic and Downstream Water Risks

China has begun construction of a massive hydroelectric complex on the Yarlung Tsangpo river in Tibet, a project known as Motuo or Medog. The $168 billion scheme aims to divert water through tunnels that drop about 2,000 m over 50 km, generating roughly 300 TWh of electricity per year—about three times the output of the Three Gorges Dam. The initiative is touted as a clean‑energy boost but has sparked alarm over the region’s high seismic activity and the potential for earthquakes to compromise the giant dams.

Experts warn that the infrastructure could destabilise the already fragile geology of the Tibetan plateau and increase the risk of floods. Downstream, the river becomes the Brahmaputra, a vital water source for more than 130 million people in India and Bangladesh, where altered flows and reduced sediment could harm agriculture and the Ganges‑Brahmaputra delta. Critics argue that the environmental and geopolitical costs may outweigh the projected energy benefits, while Chinese officials maintain the project will cut emissions and support a transition to renewable power.