China’s beef import quotas tighten as Australia and Brazil near caps

Australia has already filled its 2026 annual beef quota for China, and Brazil is close behind, leaving the two largest exporters at risk of being excluded from the Chinese market for the remainder of the year.

Other suppliers such as Argentina, Uruguay and New Zealand still have quota capacity, creating uncertainty over beef trade volumes and prices in the second half of 2026. Both Australia and Brazil have lobbied Beijing to relax the quota rules, but so far no change has been announced.

China’s beef imports in the first five months of 2026 were stronger than expected, and prices have risen despite the quota system intended to protect domestic producers. The key question now is whether China will allow out‑of‑quota beef to enter bonded warehouses, a decision that could shift market dynamics and affect pricing through 2027.