China’s domination of critical metals threatens European industry

China now controls the majority of global supplies and refining capacity for several strategic metals. It holds about 30 % of world tungsten reserves, produces roughly half of the output and refines 90 % of tungsten carbide, and has imposed export licences that exclude foreign military users. Analysts warn that the tighter export regime could leave European manufacturers – from tool makers to automotive and defense producers – unable to obtain essential materials within months.

The European Union acknowledges the vulnerability and the G7 has pledged €64 billion for 195 projects to diversify supply, but concrete mechanisms remain undefined. Experts call for a shift from free‑trade frameworks to bilateral supply‑guarantee clauses, arguing that only state‑level negotiations can counter China’s “strategic allocation of supply”. The broader context is a looming “European shock 2.0”, as China’s export‑driven growth increasingly shapes global trade patterns and puts pressure on Europe’s competitiveness.

If Chinese export controls tighten further, European industries could face production shortfalls, higher costs and a loss of strategic autonomy in sectors ranging from advanced manufacturing to defence.