China's EV Battery Production Set to Outpace Global Demand by 2030

China now dominates the electric‑vehicle (EV) battery market, supplying roughly 70% of global EV batteries and accounting for over 80% of worldwide battery‑cell output. Lithium‑iron‑phosphate (LFP) chemistry, pioneered by BYD and CATL, represents more than half of global EV battery demand, with about 98% of LFP production capacity located in China.

A Carnegie Endowment report projects Chinese battery‑cell capacity of 5,862–6,720 GWh by 2030, surpassing the estimated global demand of 4,000–5,100 GWh. At the same time, Chinese battery exports exceed $6 billion per month, with Europe receiving nearly half of the shipments. The cost advantage remains pronounced, with Chinese NMC cells priced 10%–27% lower and LFP cells 24%–50% lower than Western equivalents. The study recommends selective cooperation with Chinese firms to mitigate supply‑chain risks while noting that next‑generation technologies such as silicon‑anode and lithium‑metal batteries remain stronger in OECD economies.